CMHC changes, Housing affordability programs, Bank of Canada decisions generally always takes into account the market dynamics of the 2 biggest market places in Canada - Toronto and Vancouver. It is good to have an understanding of what is going on elsewhere in the country to get a sense of what changes maybe coming and understanding how those changes effect our local market. It is unfortunate that policy changes are usually done nationally as a one size fits all for all regions.
GTA is experiencing a massive reduction in sales and a huge increase of inventory of new Condo apartments and single family homes. The GTA has gone from a large housing shortage to an over supply. Prices are dropping as a result. See graph. New single family home sales for October were 77% below the 10 year average and new condo sales were down 91% from the 10 year average for this time of year. These factors are definitely going to effect policy changes nationally. Affordability is still a major issue for GTA and Vancouver and policy changes to improve that should only help us here in Alberta.
On a positive note for the Greater Calgary Region, we do not have the overbuild of new homes nor have we priced ourselves out of reach of the average home buyer. Home ownership is still 50% less than in GTA or Vancouver. Incomes are about the same on average. This is why we have a positive net interprovincial inflow of people choosing to make Alberta their new home. As long as this positive trend keeps up and there is employment for those moving here, we will continue to be a destination of choice.
Comparison of Toronto and Calgary over the past 20 years to the end of Oct 2024: In 2004, the average new apartment in Toronto GTA cost approx. $250,000. In Calgary it was $195,000. In 2024, this increased to just over $1 million in Toronto GTA and $530,000 in Calgary. A single family detached home in Toronto GTA in 2004 cost approximately $325,000. In Calgary is cost approx $306,000. In 2024 this increased to $1,550,000 in Toronto GTA and $804,000 in Calgary. Thus the “Alberta is Calling” ad campaign targeting Ontario and specifically Toronto GTA by the Alberta Gov’t.
